The Use of Public Opinion Poll-Based Strategies in the U.S.: Clinton-Dole 1996 to Bush-Gore 2000
Matthew Bowler
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摘要
1996年柯林頓與杜爾對決的美國總統大選，是一場具有啟發性的競賽，因為兩人皆依賴以民調科學為基礎進行攻防戰，而差別在於，小柯用的有效，而老杜則走了偏鋒。柯林對的民調團隊很早就開始進行選戰分析，目標針對於柯林頓各項優缺點所帶來的威脅，使得小柯能在競選初期從容應付對手與選民的挑戰。本篇文章以解釋柯林頓競選團隊如何正確運用民調幫助他贏得總統大選來貫穿全文。 |
在柯林頓的競選團隊中，民調策略專家一直都是核心的成員，一起和柯林頓主導整個大選機器的運作。明確的民意調查方法的運用是相當多選擇。例如，標準檢驗程式（Benchmarking）、質的研究、特殊訊息的分析、及商場測試（mall testing）。大致而言，這些科學而謹慎的民調技術，使得民意調查的可信度非常的高。
競選的初期，由Mark Penn設計與執行民調（可稱為民調的中央神經系統），第一次的民意調查的對象相當廣泛，時間點選擇在競選活動剛開始的時候。這份民調有助於決定優先的主打議題，即是決定競選基調。
在質的研究中，最是重要的就是對選舉文宣的檢驗，特別是在競選演講中所用的辭彙，都必須在質的研究中加以反覆測試。特別是這種研究可以探知受訪者真正的意願和意見，正式其他的研究方法所無法探知的。
進一步說，精密的民意測驗，其成果展現在一場好的競選演說，及競選議題的控制。柯林頓的競選團隊明確的了解這一點，因此得以不斷藉由各種民調研究進行選戰測略的調整，而獲得勝利。
CLINTON-DOLE 1996
The 1996 Clinton/Dole race is instructive because it contrasts a particularly effective use of polling-based strategy (Clinton) with particularly ineffective strategy (Dole). The Clinton team from an early date began using polls to perform what can be understood as a "SWOT" analysis (Strengths- Weaknesses- Opportunities- Threats) of Clinton's position vis-a-vis the competition and the electorate. This analysis began with Penn's benchmark "neuro poll" and continued with regular polls covering new issues as they emerged. A summary of some features of such an implicit SWOT analysis follows:
STRENGTHS
l Strong approval of Clinton's handling of economy (57%)
l Anti-incumbency feelings were low (17% vs. 29% two years earlier)
WEAKNESSES
l Republicans traditionally (and currently) "own" the values issue
l Voters are not really aware of the extent of public economic optimism
OPPORTUNITIES
l Balanced budget can attract swing voters (80% of voters support it)
l Values can be reframed, away from religious interpretation (values were found to be a key variable on which Dole had advantage)
l Gridlock caused by Republican confrontational tactics in congress will be blamed on Republicans (as predicted by poll)
l Public resentment of Republican allied interest groups (tobacco, NRA, but not Christian Coalition)
THREATS
l Clinton's liberal image (used crime ads to address this)
l Running a critical campaign against Dole (polls revealed that even some Dole supporters felt Dole was too critical)
This SWOT analysis does not predict that Clinton was in a position to easily defeat Dole in the upcoming election; rather the analysis, made possible by frequent and extensive polls, gave the Clinton team the tools needed to design an effective strategy. Such a strategy included what moves would be required to counter attacks from the Dole team, and what issues appeal most to swing voters. For example, Republican rhetoric placed much importance on the economy, and the need to downsize big government, and reduce taxes. Polling by the Clinton team revealed that the public was inclined to have a basically optimistic/satisfied view on these issues. Thus, Clinton did not need to react too forcefully to Dole's attacks in this area since they would not be well received by voters. Instead, Clinton would create his own narrative of how economic prosperity was the result of his policies.
Voter sentiment revealed by polls allowed Clinton's team to devise a synthesis strategy to handle the balanced budget. Clinton moved to balance the budget while protecting Medicare, Medicaid, education and the environment (M2E2). This strategy was designed to win swing voter support and corresponds with Dick Morris' concept of "triangulation". However this is not a case of blindly moving to the center - the details of the positioning were carefully selected based on opinion poll results.
By contrast, Dole's campaign only adopted such strategies in half-measure: too little and too late. Dole ran a negative campaign, without considering what the public reception would be (Clinton's polls revealed that it would be poorly received). The Republicans did not have a plan for attracting swing voters (because they didn't understand swing voters), allowed the Democrats to move into traditionally Republican issues, and designed their platform based largely on party dogma without adequately considering public feedback.
USE OF POLLS by the Clinton team:
l IDENTIFYING: what are issues of importance for voters?
l WEIGHING: what importance do voters place on issues relative to other issues?
l FRAMING: how can voters be encouraged to reinterpret our platform more favorably?
l PREEMPTING: what are the optimal responses to potential actions from the other side?
l POSITIONING: how can we change our platform in order to gain a greater share of voters?
The key members of the Clinton team consisted of pollster/strategist/ consultant Dick Morris and pollsters Mark Penn and Doug Schoen.
Specific polling methods used were varied. Benchmarking, qualitative research, testing specific messages, mall testing. Polls were fairly frequent.
Mark Penn designed and executed the benchmark Blueprint "neuro" poll at the beginning of the campaign. This was a comprehensive survey which was the foundation for the rest of the campaign. It helped determine priority issues as well as the general mood of the nation.
Qualitative research was most important for testing the phrasing of slogans and messages, particularly in preparation for speeches. The "mall test" involved setting up small booths at malls in which respondents could privately view specially created commercials/messages, then record their impressions. The effectiveness of this technique is said to come from the fact that respondents are exposed to the message, then are allowed to communicate their opinion privately. Other research methods do not provide this combination.
Ongoing polling was carried out for speeches and handling specific issues The Clinton team was continually engaged in responsive strategizing, adjusting the platform to adapt to changes in public perception. The Dole team was aware on some level of this dimension, but did not have the vision or the tools to produce any effective action.
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